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About The Battalion. (College Station, Tex.) 1893-current | View Entire Issue (Nov. 1, 1982)
etc Battalion/Page November 1,1$ Polling Polly want to debate (continued from page 1) Candidates also use polls to determine public preferences about campaign issues, Hill said. “This becomes an important part of campaign strategy,” he said. White’s campaign manager, Jim Francis, said: “You use your polls initially to devise that strategy.” Polls especially are helpful in showing trends, Dunn said. , If a marker poll is taken early in the campaign and is followed with similar polls over the next few months, a candidate can get an idea about the important issues in the state and gauge changes in his popularity, Dunn said. “The rnost publicly acknow ledged role of polls is to tell can didates where they stand — whether they are ahead or be hind — what we call the horse race element of polls,” Hill said. But Finding the most impor tant issue affecting voters often can be difficult — especially in Texas, Dunn said. “This state is so big, it has so many media markets and is so geographically diverse that it’s unusual when one issue en velops the entire state,” he said. Although polls usually are used to find out public opinion on an issue the candidate already has taken a stand on, Hill said, candidates sometimes use polls to decide which stand to take. “Sometimes a candidate does a poll and then he finds out what he’s interested in,” he said. “He has no idea what he’s interested in before that. . “That’s very controversial though. One of the kinds of things that you may see more criticism of in the future ... is manipulating the public with the information they (candidates) get from the public.” But few candidates use polls to formulate their opinions, Hill said. “Most people running for a significant office, by the time they get to that point, feel that they know what the important issues are,” he said. Experienced politicians think they can estimate public opinion — maybe not in the broad sense that they know what every group thinks of them, but well enough to sense what issues are important to the voters, Hill said. won’t keep polling. It’s one other piece of information and it also is a way to convince people that he is serious.” Polls don’t make the final de cisions on campaign strategy, Dunn said. “Most candidates are not slaves to polls,” he said, “and many of them will not do what their pollsters tell them to do be cause their own intuitions, their own gut feeling, is that the poll is wrong. “That same person doesn’t believe in polls so little that he “We’re dealing with a man (White) who has been in public office for several years and who is going to stick by his princi ples,” he said. “The final deci sions are made by him. “Science hasn’t totally domin ated politics.” Tony Garrett, deputy press secretary for the governor, said Clements isn’t tied to his polls either. “He’s not'going to change his mind because of the results of a poll,” he said. Politicians shouldn’t always rely on polling results, Luttbeg said. “If a politician has developed the kind of skills for sensing groundswell issues that comes with a certain native intelligence and a certain amount of time in office, he probably doesn’t need to use polls,” he said. “The novice politician who is unskilled at knowing how to sense public opinion probably should poll.” Polls can help a candidate de termine his strengths and weak nesses. “If you haven’t been in an A19C CAHEER DEVELOPMENT TPESENfS: area of the state, it shows up real quick in a poll,” Dunn said. “It shows up in name recognition.” Polling results can help candi dates decide where in the state to concentrate media messages and what medium to use, Hill said. If a candidate’s poll shows he’s weak with one group and those people are heavy radio lis teners, he can concentrate his money on radio advertisements, Hill said. “You need to find the unde cided voters, what their issue concerns are, what their media markets are, how you can reach them and how you can talk to them,” he said. “And that’s what a poll can do.” But if a poll finds a candidate is weak in the northeast corner of his district and he concen trates his efforts there, he may not win more votes, Luttbeg said. “There’s no real evidence that going to the northeast cor ner of your district and appear ing or walking door-to-door swings a lot of votes,” he said, “but that’s traditionally what candidates do.” Research has shown that con tact with a candidate will in crease turnout, but not necessar ily in his favor, Luttbeg said. “It’s at least conceivable that the strategy of going to the northeast corner of your district because the polls show you’re weak there may actually increase turnout in that area and that those people will be voting for your opponent,” he said. “It’s conceivable that it could completely backfire.” Polls also can play an impor tant part in getting campaign contributions, Hill said. “It is very difficult to con vince someone when you’re asking for $1000 or $5000 from them that you’re a serious candi date if you don’t have a poll to give them some behind-the- scenes information,” he said. For a challenger, a poll can become his only means of get ting contributions, Hill said. If a challenger can show potential contributors a poll that says the incumbent is vulnerable and the challenger has a chance, he is more likely to get money, he said. Dunn agreed: “Big money people don’t like to throw their money away. A well-placed poll can help.” Without a poll, Hill said, many potential contributors won’t look at a candidate twice. “Contributors have gotten very sophisticated about what to ask for in this kind of informa tion,” he said. But polls aren’t without their problems — especially for the public. The polling results released by opposing candidates often conflict — leaving the public wondering if the polls can be trusted at all. The way the pollster screens for likely voters probably ex plains 95 percent of the discre pancies in polling results during a campaign, Hill said. Luttbeg said: “The tradition al way to get at voters is to ask some combination of questions. A lot of variations in results are directly attributable to how they (the pollsters) identify voters.” But Dunn said it’s difficult to determine why discrepancies occur because candidates are unwilling to release information on their polls. “The specifics of the polls aren’t being released,” he said. “The secret on where the num bers came from is the sample. You have to look at how the peo ple are called.” And no one seems to know how the polls affect voters or if candidates can influence the election by the release of polling results. “I’m not sure that they’re trying to have an influence when they selectively release polls,” Hill said. “I don’t think they are really trying to influence your rank-and-file voter as much as they are trying to ensure that the campaign contributions keep coming in. “But I’m not underestimat ing the importance in the pub lic’s mind of who they perceive to be winning the horse race. I have found that there is a ten dency on the part of the public to like front-runners.” a candidate: El (contii United Press International COLLINSVILLE, 111. -II nois Rep. Melvin Price doesn’i want to debate his GOP challen ger, so his aide’s parrot will do the talking. Challenger Robert Gaffner. looking to be elected as Illinois representative to Congress from the 21st District, asked Price to debate. When Price turned him down, he challenged Price's aide, Bill Hart. “I’m not in a position to de bate him,” Hart said Friday. 1 have a parrot at home that miglu want to.” Gaffner took him up on the offer. “As I said earlier,” Gaffnet replied, “in my opinion, Mr Price has abrogated his role to Mr. Hart since any response to our charges has come from Mr Hart. Now Mr. Hart evidenllv has abrogated his role to his parrot. “If that’s the best thatthecon- gressman’s office can do, I'd be happy to debate the parrot. “The parrot would probably have more intelligent responses regarding the serious problems facing the 21st District than any thing we’ve heard from Mr Hart anyway,” Gaffner said. Hart was not available todis- Lieutt C George S Notre Dai: the Harvat Business. 1 j supporter John Towi In his i stressed th review of tl [ tem. He s mandatory repeat off I sure juries before the criminals | punishnien victed of c cated. Bill Hobt Hobby, a n the incumt present po: He is a fori of the state ber of tlx Force on Si Hobby theme has 1. cuss arrangements. A PROGRAM TO INFORM PROSPECTIVE STUDENTS ABOUT GRADUATE STUDIES IN LAW AND BUSINESS. LAW PROGRAM MBA PROGRAM COST BBQ LUNCH COST 8-30-12 1-4--30 $2.00 12-1 $4.50 NMB A_* LAW, <_D A Y SATURDAY, NOVEMBER fc, 1982. 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