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About The Battalion. (College Station, Tex.) 1893-current | View Entire Issue (Nov. 19, 1980)
Viewpoint The Battalion Wednesday Texas A&M University November 19, 1980 never Slouch By Jim Earle beer-tast/mg CONTEST MO SUilMBiS V\£5TIN ACCOUNT )U& SOCIETY JIM ElSlf “I think they have stumbled onto a way of picking up attendance. ” Reagan’s successful pollsters to set trend By DAVID S. BRODER WASHINGTON — For most of us Amer icans, the 1980 election happened once, and that was enough. For Richard B. Wirthlin and Richard S. Beal, it happened many, many times. Their satisfaction with the final outcome was, at least in part, their pleasure at seeing the rehearsals reflected in the results. Wirthlin is a Ph D. economist and a former head of the economics department at Brigham Young University, where Beal, a Ph. D in inter national relations, now teaches. More perti nent, they are, respectively, the president and the senior political analyst for Decision Making Information (DMI), the firm that was the source of the polling data for Ronald Reagan’s cam paign. Wirthlin doubled in brass as a member of Reagan’s senior strategy board and Beal worked with him in the Arlington, Va., headquarters, designing the sophisticated computer exercises that enabled them to “rehearse” the election many times during the fall. Wirthlin, a lean, intense 49, and Beal, a roly- poly 34, are two of the brightest men I have met in politics. While their techniques are, in many respects, beyond my comprehension, they be gan showing me what they were doing back in September, with the understanding I would not write about it until the election was over. I do so now in the belief that you may be as intrigued as I was with the extent to which technology and human ingenuity have moved the art of campaigning beyond the methods of the old bosses. The Political Information System (PINS) they devised was designed, in Beal’s words, “to use polling data, not just to satisfy the informa tion needs of the campaign, but to help the campaign decision-makers with their strategic judgments.” If combined unions scare half their members about Reagan’s labor record, should he step up his attacks on Carter or try to rebut their speci fic claims? Or, if John Anderson’s vote begins to drop, should Reagan add a campaign stop in Connecticut, or can he afford to cancel one? In senior staff meetings, these computer dis plays help guide the allocation of the candi date’s and surrogates’ time, organizational re sources and media dollars. Two things were particularly impressive ab out the parts of the million-dollar operation they showed me during the fall. One was the discipline in their adherence to the basic theorem of Wirthlin’s original campaign plan to give Reagan the best possible odds on winning 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed for victory. And the second was the flexibility in building into the computer designs a significant Three digits in mailbox code useless when nothing comes {standing? _ “The best’ Tm no critic, 1 e guys sitting avidovich is t er heard. N< •ther I’d like en'teven taker Lie Appreci: I have this terrible problem: I can t remem ber my mailbox combination. It’s not that my memory is that poor — it s just that I haven’t gotten much use out of those three special numbers. Each day after classes I approach my mail box, hoping ever so much that something other than emptiness will stare back at me through the window. But again today, my box was empty. I check ed it three times. What I wouldn’t give for a single piece of junk mail! Even the Army has failed to reach my box with a flyer this year. The only time I get mail is when my phone bill comes. At least a phone bill shows that GTE Coffee breaks By Jane Brust cares. I know, I got my phone bill last week, so why did I check my box today? Always the optimist. I see friends peep into their boxes and happi ly click their combinations to pull out pen pal notes and fan mail, love letters and notes from home. I always sneak a quick, hopeful glance at my window and then try to look like I don t really care that dust is collecting inside the box. I think to myself, “Maybe they just haven’t put it all out yet. Maybe they put my mail in someone else’s box. Maybe it’s a national holiday. ” It’s so humiliating to walk away empty- handed. I know some people send oft for things — everything from do-it-yourself bartender’s guides to John Travolta fan club posters —just to get some mail. But I’m not that desperate — yet. Maybe I could join a record club. I’d get a package of albums every month. But then, that could get expensive, just for the joy of retriev ing something from my box. Ifl were to do that, why not join a book club and a wine-tasting club? I could even take a correspondence course in first aid or something. Last year wasn’t like this. Mom wroteto every clay, reminding me to take my vita^y,, no t tl to brush my teeth and to write back. | vie wingone c That’s it! Perhaps I must write in ordegLists. receive! IjButyou don’t I’d write to Dear Abby but she doesn’t J to know that th back. I She walks oi Maybe I could go through my addressboP^' 1180 ^ 0 ^ send a photocopied form letter to all * ets you k and relatives — surely someone won spond. But then, they all have their own Everyone is so wrapped up in his lii there’s no minute to spare, no minute tosl Maybe I’ll just drop myself a line: Dear Jane, Hi! How are you? I’m fine. I just wan fed ya know I’m thinking about you. Take care write soon! een of the ke During h< jonsored cone irmed Haydn’s Schumann' B flat Maj Variations Serie id six Chopin But Davidov the piano, no tl too, stroking She driv ihite streaks fo: ients later, she I tarts picking o L itint-and-peck i >11 And for once There! If I mail it now, maybe 111 gel e ce ended. E tomorrow! Now then, what IS my mailbox combinati [ntly Russian f doesn’t me [move her hai rows her han were red 1 And that’s wl role for intuitive political judgments. Combining these two principles, Wirthlin and Beal built the most successful model of the ever-changing dynamics of a national election campaign yet designed, and used it to shape one of the most successful campaigns in Amer ican history. With constant injection of fresh data from national-sample interviews and tracking sur veys in 20 states, PINS showed in mid-October the Carter surge in Oregon and Washington, and cued the Reagan campaign to start, within two days, a stepped-up advertising effort to counteract it. At a time in October when the press was reporting Reagan’s campaign had stalled, PINS showed a significant firming of his support in key constituencies and blocked what Wirthlin called “some high-risk, off-the-wall decisions on what we had to do.” PINS also analyzed the shape of the election from Carter’s point of view, correctly predict ing in mid-October his forced abandonment of several Southern battlegrounds in favor of a high-risk “big state” strategy. With that analysis in hand, Reagan was ready for the Carter push and stopped it cold. In the losing stages of the campaign, Wirthlin and Beal used PINS to run simulations of the election every few days in order to maximize Reagan’s chances of winning and to reduce the negative fallout from any “worst-case” develop ments. Using current survey data (as corrected, within limits, by the subjective “feel” of cam paign strategists), PINS would play out the election results on varying assumptions about the disposition of the undecided and Anderson vote and varying levels of turnout, then flash on the computer screens the simulated election results. Each “election” scenario could be pro cessed through the PINS system in seven seconds, showing the result and its degree of probability. When I last saw Wirthlin and Beal on the Friday before the real election, the two social scientists could hardly retain their academic composure. That morning’s PINS simulation had shown the very strong probability of a big Reagan win, a probability the public polls never quite re flected. Reagan, won the election through his own campaigning skills, with a lot of help from such intuitive politicians as Stuart Spencer, his de facto campaign manager. But for rival political strategists, looking ahead to future campaigns, the success of the Wirthlin-Beal PINS is enough to keep them on pins and needles for the next few years. Dr. W.A. Station at Te directors of 1 Porter, an the Institute Texas A&l Class of 1950 Randall Reii Reinisch, ceiveda$l,C James R. W< Lunney, a pient of a Pre honor of fori It’s your turn Fundamentalist groups restrictive Editor: Although letters like these are somewhat of a social taboo in secular school newspapers, I feel the subject ought to be brought to light. First of all let me start by saying “Welcome to the heartland of Protestant fundamentalism — the American Bible Belt.” If you have not already noticed, Texas A&M is a rather “reli gious” school when you consider the amount of organizations and activities centered on reli gious awareness. It is of some of these that I would like to write in respect to their general beliefs and practices. My message is this — that these organizations, although claiming to be interdemoninational, represent an opinion (as does any religion) and this opinion is founded in Biblical fundamentalism. Remember that when you approach these organizations, (or are approached as the case often is) that although they claim no denomination or faith, they are in fact stressing their belief in the Bible as it is taken literally, and have set beliefs in salvation, grace and “the end.” My concern is when that time comes in col lege life, when we each ask ourselves the prin cipal questions: Who am I? What is my pur pose? etc. some turn to religion, which I feel is good, however sometimes what is found on campus isn’t always the best answer. First of all, since this is a public school, the “mainline” churches have no chance like the so called interdenominational organizations in establishing a ministry to the students. Second ly, that when you approach these organizations, do so “with a grain of salt” as they say: accept what seems right, discard what seems unneces sary. Next, remember that the method of Bible study that occurs on campus, usually differs from Catholic, Jewish and Protestant moder ates in that it is more isegetical (readu piece of scripture your own thoughts) r ' than exegitical (trying to understand wto author meant, and why it was written). s all, there are no sure-fire methods to app r0 religion. There are no laws or rules to folloWi couple of verses (usually pulled out oi con that by themselves will attain for mercy ^ vation. The greatest religion teacher own hpnrt- ncnallv that is Wie own heart, because usually that is, not in someone’s words or theories Curt Coiner B [ By Scott McCullar The Battalion u S P S 045 360 MEMBER Texas Press Association Southwest Journalism Congress Editor .. . Dillard Stone Managing Editor Rhonda Watters Asst. Managing Editor Scott Haring Becky Swanson Asst City Editor Angelique Copeland Sports Editor Ri char d Oliver Asst. Sports Editor Ritchie p ridd Focus Editor S cot K. Meyer Asst. Focus Editor Cath Saath x off News Editors Lynn Blanco Gw en Ham, Todd Woodard Staff Writers. . . .Jennifer Afflerbach, Kurt Allen, Nancy Andersen, Marcy Boyce, Jane G. Brust i it . Mike Burrichter, Pat Davidson, Cindy Gee Jon Heidtke, Uschi Michel-Howell, Debbie Nelson, ^ . Liz Newlin, Rick Stolle r McCullar Photographers George Jeff Kerber EDITORIAL POUCY The Battalion is a non-profit, self-supporting newspaper op erated as a community service to Texas A&M University and Bryan-College Station. Opinions expressed in The Battalion are those of the editor or the author, and do not necessarily repre sent the opinions of Texas A&M University administrators or faculty members, or of the Board of Regents, Questions or comments concerning any editorii should be directed to the editor. LETTERS POUCY Letters to the Editor should not exceed and are subject to being cut if they are longer, jhe ^ reserves the right to edit letters for style and lengt • t , W 400 ML pyrex ONLY ■ , ■ f f Eachk^ make every effort to maintain the authors inten ■ . ^(Je must also be signed, show the address and phone nu writer. noi Columns and guest editorials are also welcome, ^ g( J subject to the same length constraints as ^ ters R inquiries The Perl mas Gif Favorite Scientist o tne same length constraint ^ fattalioh 1 , 1 and correspondence to: Editor, tfle ojtjflO, ® Reed McDonald, Texas A&M University, College 77843. 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