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L ESTATE
7 NATION
Wednesday, September 24, 2003 THE BATTALION
Researchers study drought as
a way to predict West Nile virus
By Janet McConnaughey
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
NEW ORLEANS — The
worst outbreaks of West Nile
virus seem to follow summer
droughts preceded by mild
winters, a pattern researchers
are studying as a possible way
to predict where the virus
might hit hardest.
“Drought is where this is
focused,” says Paul R. Epstein
of the Center for Health and the
Global Environment at Harvard
Medical School.
Though Epstein sounds
convinced, other researchers
say more work is needed.
“1 suspect that it is going to
be more complicated than just
saying that West Nile virus
transmission will increase or
decrease based on periods of
rainfall,” said Dr. Ned Hayes,
an epidemiologist at the
Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention.
Epstein, one of several
researchers studying factors
in the spread of West Nile
for a seven-year govern
ment study, points to these
historical patterns:
The initial U.S. outbreak in
New York in 1999 followed a
three-month drought and three-
week heat wave. Last year’s
devastating spread followed a
year of widespread warm win
ters and spring or
summer droughts. a
This year the
disease has
spread through
out the West
with Colorado
reporting more
West Nile virus
cases than any
other state.
Colorado,
Nebraska and
other slides with
the worst out
breaks all have
had droughts.
The Harvard
researcher may
be right, but he hasn’t proven
it, said Dr. Bob Shope, a Texas
professor who echoed the
CDC official’s caution. There
has been no controlled study
and more data is needed, said
Shope who teaches at the
University of Texas Medical
Branch in Galveston.
Still, Epstein explains
how drought could intensify
an outbreak, especially in
urban areas.
Standing water collects in
drains and catch basins, stag
nating and
attracting the
female house
mosquito for
egg-laying.
Ponds and creeks
dry up, reducing
the numbers of
frogs, dragon
flies and other
predators.
Remaining
sources of clean
water become a
gathering spot
for birds making
them an easier
target for the
insects. While
house mosquitoes prefer birds
to people, later in the summer,
the species that find people
just as tasty as birds become
more pervasive.
Epstein’s research was
sparked by similar patterns
with St. Louis encephalitis, a
closely related bug. That
encephalitis strain first showed
up in this country in 1933,
three years into the Dust Bowl
drought that started in the East
and moved west.
At the CDC in the 1970s, Dr.
Thomas Monath compared St.
Louis encephalitis and weather.
Ten of the first 12 big urban
outbreaks, he found, came
after two-month droughts; an
11 th occurred after one month
of drought.
The fact that the mosquitoes
that spread St. Louis encephali
tis also are thought to spread
West Nile strengthens the argu
ment, but three or four years is
probably just not enough time to
make any absolute conclusions,
Monath said. "With St. Louis
encephalitis, we were able to
look back about 40 years over a
series of multiple outbreaks.”
Going after larvae as
much as possible is a good
idea in areas prone to either
virus, he said. “It’s much
easier to control or prevent
the disease by early meas
ures than it is to try to pre
vent an outbreak once the
virus is cranked up.”
I suspect that it is
going to be more
complicated than
just saying that West
Nile virus transmis
sion will increase or
decrease hosed on
periods of rainfall
— Dr. Ned Hayes
epidemiologist
CALL FOR PAPERS
Texas A&M University
Undergraduate
Journal of Science
All undergrads doing research are eligible to
submit their work for possible publication.
DEADLINE: Sept. 30, 2003
Rm. 230 Reed-McDonald or at uis.tamu.edu
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NEWS IN BRIEF
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CHICAGO (AP) — A night
club owner and three other
men were charged with
manslaughter in a stampede
that killed 21 people last win
ter — a tragedy prosecutors
said was caused in part by
the owners packing the place
to five times its capacity.
E2 nightclub owner Dwain
Kyles, his alleged partner
Calvin Hollins Jr., party pro
moter Marco Flores and
Hollins’ son, Calvin Hollins
III, a club manager, pleaded
innocent Tuesday. A grand
jury handed up the sealed
indictments last week.
“They put individuals into a
precarious situation where
any incident could — and
unfortunately in this situation
did — lead to tragedy,” said
Cook County State’s Attorney
Dick Devine.
Involuntary manslaughter
involving multiple deaths car
ries up to 10 years in prison.
The Feb. 17 stampede at
the E2 nightclub started after
someone used pepper spray
to break up a dance-floor
fight. Patrons fled for the
doors, crushing each other
on a narrow staircase.
Prosecutor Robert Egan,
reading from the indictment,
said the owners willfully
packed the club with about
1,200 people on the night of
the stampede, roughly five
times its capacity of 240.
Safety officials urge adoption of new
device to prevent electrical fires
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BETHESDA, Md. (AP) —
An inexpensive device that
detects wiring problems
could prevent many of the
40,000 electrical fires that
damage U.S. homes and kill
350 people each year, safe
ty officials said Tuesday,
urging homeowners to install
Arc Fault Circuit Interrupters.
The device, also called
an AFCI, cuts power when
it detects electricity arcing
from damaged wires.
Homes with old wiring are
especially vulnerable to
this problem, which can
occur when wires or cords
overheat or are pinched by
furniture, pierced by nails,
frayed from age or gnawed
by rodents.
AFCIs cost as little as $25,
but the Consumer Product
Safety Commission said
installing one can be danger
ous and should be done only
by a licensed electrician.
While not officially recom
mending that all consumers
use AFCIs, the safety com
mission said people should
consider having them
installed, particularly in the
more than 50 million U.S.
homes with wiring more than
40 years old.
Hal Stratton, chairman of
the safety commission, said
homeowners should have the
wiring in their homes tested
to see if an AFCI would
improve safety.
Electrical fires cause
hundreds of millions of
dollars in property dam
age each year, according
to the safety commission.
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LOS ANGELES (AP) —
The state has agreed to buy
2,800 acres for a tentative
$150 million to block con
struction of a $2 billion golf
course and housing com
munity and create a nature
preserve in its place.
State officials said the deal
with landowner Washington
Mutual, the nation’s largest
lending bank, is expected to
win final approval in early
October, the Los Angeles
Times reported Tuesday.
Washington Mutual planned to
build a 3,050-home golf course
community on the oak-dotted
Ahmanson Ranch land on the
border of Los Angeles and
Ventura counties.
The plan was approved by
Ventura County in 1990, but
since then various lawsuits
and the discovery of a rare
frog and flower had stalled
the development.
The planned $2 billion devel
opment would have brought in
8,000 residents and resulted in
37,500 more vehicle trips per
day on area streets and free
ways, according to an environ
mental impact report.
A $1.5 million campaign to
save the acreage was joined
by celebrities including director
Rob Reiner.
The property is a convenient
location for hikers and bikers
and serves as a wildlife corri
dor at the head of the Malibu
Creek watershed.
The acquisition would be
subsidized by Proposition 50,
a bond measure approved by
voters last year for land and
wildlife preservation.
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