Baylor Law School
February 22 nd
7 p.m.
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Bush wins South Carolina primari 1
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WASHINGTON (AP) — When John McCain
woke up Sunday in Michigan, the clock was already
ticking on his presidential campaign.
With just 48 hours to prepare for the state’s Re
publican primary, a critical follow-up to George W.
Bush’s thumping win in South Carolina, McCain had
no time to spare and few options to explore. And so
he mocked Bush’s claim to be a reformer and cost
cutting conservative, hoping to learn from the lessons
of South Carolina.
“I’m more conservative than he
is,” the Arizonan said in a blitz of me
dia appearances.
Time and demographics were on
Bush’s side, analysts said.
“I think Bush got a huge bounce out
of South Carolina on Saturday. He re
claimed the mantel of front-runner
with a vengeance,” said GOP pollster
Whit Ayres. “And McCain has few
places to turn.”
He can start with the results in
South Carolina:
— Bush won by 11 percentage
points, galvanizing religious conser
vatives and party regulars to swamp
McCain’s fragile coalition of inde
pendents, Democrats and Republi
cans who don’t normally vote in GOP
primaries.
— The Texas governor was sup
ported by seven out of 10 Republican
voters. The same ratio of religious right
voters backed him. McCain increased
the participation of non-Republican
voters in South Carolina, but learned
that he can’t expand the party unless
bedrock Republicans join with him.
— More voters considered Bush a
“He’s does have to win Michigan,” Bauer said,
acknowledging what McCain aides say privately: A
second-straight loss would be devastating.
Arizona Republicans also vote Tuesday, but Mc
Cain won’t get much credit for winning his home
state. Three states conduct GOP contests a week lat
er on Feb. 29, but McCain won’t campaign hard in
one of them, Virginia, and the others won't generate
much momentum.
m! y. Shakcspt
ection of si
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ELECTION 2000
South Carolina Primary
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
(TOP THREE CANDIDATES)
George W. Bush
★ ★
John McCain - 42%
Alan Keyes
★ ★ ★
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political reformer than McCain, proof that the Ari
zonan’s centerpiece issue got lost in a debate over
negative advertising that sprang from McCain’s
own actions.
Picking through those numbers, McCain realized
he must siphon Michigan conservatives from Bush
and reclaim his self-styled reformist image. Thus, he
accused Bush on Sunday of spending wildly in Texas
while paying lip service to health care and campaign
finance reforms.
Asked if he still felt that Bush twists the truth like
President Clinton, he replied: “Well, sure he has.”
The two-pronged message was personified by con
servative activist Gary Bauer and campaign finance
reform stalwart Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee,
both of whom traveled aboard McCain’s bus.
That makes Michigan his best hope of gaining a
head of steam before March 7, when 13 states con
duct GOP contests.
It doesn’t help that there is little statistical differ
ence between GOP voters in Michigan and South
Carolina. In both states, one in 10 primary voters are
Democrats, three in 10 are independents and the rest
are self-identified Republicans. Michigan, like South
Carolina, opens its primaries to all voters.
The percentage of people who identify with the
religious right is slightly lower in Michigan, but still
nearly a third of all GOP voters.
Michigan Republicans do tend to be less affluent,
younger and drawn more to economic issues than
GOP voters in South Carolina. In suburban Detroit
and blue-collar cities like Saginaw, Mich., McCain is
fchfs Dre:
ibridgemoni
appealing to economic conservatives whosyppc!3§i’enifij^.. F
at Buchanan and Ross Perot.
Michigan pollster Id Sarpolus said these are ft:!. Still con
frustrated h\ the political process. Their supportlidjt jeatestaml
McCain pull even with Bush in recent state polls
ancing Bush’s 20-point lead among Republicans.
But they are fickle voters, and might stayho
Bush looks like a sure-winner.
“Either they vote for McCain or they don'tw ebrated so ft
at all,” Sarpolus said. “Thequests basic denier
will they come out now” thatMcCi For the j
lost his momentum in SouthCaiolis joined in the
In an appeal to those economic*
servatives, McCain has run aTViffl
weeks promising to cut wastefulSffliJ
ing. I le also is airing radio adsp*
mg he will not engage in negat)i»
paigning and saying he is the can*
in hi ing reform to Washington.
But he can't forget social ccw*
lives in western Michigan, who«!
told by Bush supporters that McCain
not conservative enough. An anti-H
Cain campaign by Bush andhissptt
interest allies helped drive socialci
servatives to the voting booths inSoi
Carolina.
“He’s got to take directly (he
their attack of whether he is pro
not,” Bauer said.
Aides say it is too late forMcQ it draw the si
to launch an effective ad campaign^ l's organizer:
counters the charges or raises quesM
about Bush’s conservatism. Thu;
will rely on the media, an iffy propit
tion when Monday is a holiday
many voters will be away fromn^
papers and TV.
Advisers were debating w
announce a new initiative to get attention. Oneii
discussed Sunday was a major spending-cutp 1 iciety and a
though aides said all planning was in a flux.
After South Carolina, McCain advisers pin®
more money into telephone marketing bed pected, but
phone banks are a good way to influence volets 1
short notice.
5%
RUBEN DELUNA/THH BATTALION
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“Attendanc
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Ini Society ;
That strategy shift came into play when
ter King of New York bolted from Bush’s campS !
day and blasted the governor for visiting whatetit
say is an anti-Catholic university.
With TV ads and direct-mail out of the quest 1
McCain’s advisers plans to use phone bankstospi
news of King’s switch to the state’s huge popular
of Catholic voters, particularly on the McCain-fe
ly Eastern half of lower Michigan.
ience major.
He said attt
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