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Drought and La Nina
New data sets focus on rainfall, streamflow
BY DAVE AMBER
The Battalion
Two different groups of scientists re
leased reports this month bringing new in
sight into the El Nino and La Nina weath
er phenomena and their effects on weather
patterns in the United States.
The first report is a collection of glob
al rainfall data assembled by NASA that
gives climate researchers physical data for
testing climate models.
The second is an analysis of U.S.
streamflow data by the U.S. Geological
Survey (USGS) that will help deter
mine when the effects of La Niiia might
cause wetter or drier conditions across
the country.
The reports come at a time when
Texas and the Southwest have been
grappling with another period of
drought that scientists generally blame
on the current La Nina.
“Weather across the United States
has been consistent with a La Nina pat
tern," Dr. John Niclsen-Gammon, act
ing Texas slate climatologist and Texas
A&M associate professor of Atmos
pheric Sciences, said.
“We have a strong La Nina pattern
in place, and according to long-term
weather models, we have a high prob
ability of warmer and drier weather
than normal through most of the
spring,” Travis Miller, an agronomist
with the Texas Agricultural Extension
Service, said.
“This, to a large degree, explains the
drought conditions and warm weather we
have been experiencing throughout the
summer and fall,” he said.
The analysis, covering a 20-year peri
od, should help researchers understand cli
mate variations by using real observations
to aid in determining the effectiveness of
models for future climate changes.
Dr. Robert Adler, a NASA scientist at
the Goddard Space Flight Center in
Greenbelt, Md. and project leader for the
agency’s Global Precipitation Climatol
ogy Project (GPCP), unveiled the database
this month at a California meeting of the
American Meteorological Society.
“Before we can use models to suc
cessfully predict El Nino’s and other cli
mate phenomena, they must be able to re
produce these observations,” Adler said.
“With this information, we can better
understand these phenomena and the crit
ical regional precipitation variations asso
ciated with them.”
Only in the past few years have sci
entists been able to create sophisticated
simulations.
“The data sets would be good tests for
new models when we simulate climate
change and as we look at surface
changes,” A&M’sNielsen-Gammon said.
“The models will help us to predict future
climate changes.”
thousands of streamflow gauges, these
maps show which parts of the country
should experience high or low flows dur
ing the La Niiia period.
“We’ve looked at La Nina years and
determined where there’s a higher chance
of having unusually high flows and where
there’s a higher chance of having unusu
ally low flows,” Dr. Michael Dellinger, a
USGS hydrologist, said.
The researchers predicted that for the
first six months of 2000, streamflow in
parts of the Southwest will be in the low
er third of recorded levels.
These predictions are important to state
water managers who are tasked with mak
ing sure there is a sufficient supply of wa
ter available for rural and urban areas.
“We can't control precipitation, l ather
it comes or it doesn’t. But we can manage
water,” Dettinger said.
“We can decide now to intervene and
make changes to reservoirs or divert wa
ter long before an emergency happens if
we know the likelihood of having a prob
lem is increased. So the streamflow fore
casts are of special interest.”
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Studying streamflovvs to
predict La Niiia effects
Drought hutting Texas
agriculture
Studying precipitation levels
to test climate models
The new data set compiled by NASA
scientists brings forth information about
precipitation levels around the world.
The report from USGS climate scien
tists said something that many farmers in
Texas already knew.
This spring, rivers in Texas and the
Southwest may be among the driest in
recorded history as the region experiences
its third year out of four years with drought
conditions.
The climatologists place blame for cur
rent weather conditions on La Nina.
From statistical surveys of stream flows
of past La N iiia years, the researchers have
developed new maps to help predict the ef
fects of future ones.
Based on the researchers’ analyses of
For Travis Miller, June 26, 1999 is a
date he wants to wash from his memory .
“That was the last time large areas of
the state were covered in rainfall," Miller,
who serves on the state’s Drought Advi
sory Council, said.
Texas, now in the middle of the winter
w heat growing season and heading into
com season, is suffering its third year of
drought in four years.
The water shortages and unseasonably
high temperatures are hurting the agricul
tural economy in Texas and other parts of
the Southwest.
“The agriculture economy is in tatters,”
Miller said.
State Agriculture Commissioner Susan
El Nino and La Nina refer to two extremes of a climate cycle known as the El t
In El Nino, unusually warm surface waters move through the eastern P t »cific r*
ening of the normal east to west trade winds along the equator. This allows w
coast of South America.
During La Nina, the other extreme of ENSO, the trade winds become stronger
water to the surface. The eastern Pacific becomes colder than normal.
Texas streamflow has been decreasing during the La Nina period.
ROBERT HYHECOn*
’X) Southern Oscillation,o
ir the equator, caused bi t
ni water to build up along
d coastal upwel
Combs said that the Texas agricultural in
dustry, w hich has not fully recov ered from
the 1996 and 1998 droughts, is heading lor
a crisis.
Problems with drought led 75 Texas
counties to be declared eligible for feder
al disaster assistance, with 13 more wait
ing for approval.
“The dry winter is taking many of
our farmers into a spring planting sea
son with no surface soil moisture and no
subsurface soil moisture,” Combs said.
“We are six weeks away from planting
com in South Texas, and soil moisture
is needed. If it doesn’t start raining,
many areas of the stale may not see any
spring planting.”
According to Miller, because agricul
tural and urban areas ultimately consume
water from the same sources, water con
servation efforts play an important role in
mitigating the drought crisis.
For example, in San Antonio, the city
and the counties west of the citv all draw
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