The Battalion
Monday • February 16,
Iraq’s neighbors fear effects of potential attack
AMMAN, Jordan (AP) — Countries
that border Iraq fear they would be the
victims of economic and political fallout
from an American attack aimed at forc
ing Saddam Hussein to cooperate with
U.N. weapons inspectors.
Jordan, Turkey and Iran again may
have to deal with huge waves of refugees,
as they did — with almost no interna
tional help — during the 1990 Persian
Gulf crisis and 1991 Gulf War.
Along with Syria, they have important
trade links with Iraq.
And all are watching with dismay as
foreign tourists cancel reservations for
what had been expected to be a lucrative
spring season.
Only Kuwait, which has not forgiven
Saddam for his 1990 invasion of the
countiy, has offered to support an Amer
ican-led military campaign.
Neighboring Saudi Arabia, which par
ticipated with the U.S.-led coalition that
ended Iraq’s occupation of Kuwait, will
not even allow its military bases to be used
this time. Neither will Jordan or Turkey.
None wants to get dragged into a con
flict that most certainly would spread if
Iraq retaliates by firing Scuds or other
missiles at Israel — and Israel, as
promised, responds with greater force.
“We all lived the burden of the (Gulf)
War,” Turkey’s prime minister, MesutYil-
maz, said earlier this month. “And we
don’t want to live it again.”
Labib Kamhawi, a political science
professor at Jordan University, told The
Associated Press on Sunday that, in the
short run, striking Iraq “will have a devas
tating economic impact that could trigger
instability in the neighboring countries.”
Jordan is almost entirely dependent
on Iraq for oil, and Iraq is the main mar
ket for Jordanian-made products.
TUrkey complains it has lost $35 billion
in trade with Iraq since the Gulf War and
encourages a daily procession of Turkish
trucks to carry food and textiles across the
border to Iraq and return with oil.
Syria recently signed its first contracts
to sell food and soap to Iraq under a
U.N.-approved program.
Iran, though it fought a devastating
war with Iraq in the 1980s, is selling more
and more products to Baghdad. It also
apparently is turning a blind eye to what
Iraqi opposition groups say is the exten
sive smuggling of Iraqi oil through Iran’s
Gulf ports.
Many Arab leaders also must deal
with their citizens’ concerns that seven
years of punishing U.N. sanctions have
pauperized Iraq’s 22 million people.
Already there have been pro-Iraq —
and anti-American — demonstrations in
Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Yemen and the
Palestinian territories, despite government
bans aimed at keeping emotions in check.
Jordanian opposition leader Leith
Shubeilat, who has led two pro-Iraq ral
lies here and is planning a third, foresees
repercussions of the crisis “not only for
Jordan but for the whole region.”
He predicted that if Arab govern
ment’s do not heed growing public sym
pathy for the Iraqis “there is going to be a
divorce between the people and their
governments. ...Certainly we will be sit
ting on a powder keg.”
Worries that a U.S.-led strike could
lead to a partitioning of Iraq — a major
concern during the GulfWar—again are
being discussed.
It was no surprise that Turkish Foreign
Minister Ismail Gem, a mediator dis
patched to Baghdad earlier this month,
called for a regional security plan that
would meet Saddam’s “concerns for
Iraq’s territorial integrity.”
Turkey, Syria and Iran would look
askance at a partitioning that creates an
autonomous Kurdish region in northern
Iraq, fearing it would embolden their own
substantial Kurdish minorities to rise up.
Autonomy for the Shiite Muslim ma
jority in southern Iraq could have reper
cussions in Iran, where Shiite Muslims
also are a majority, and in Saudi Arabia,
where Shiites predominate in the oil-rich
Eastern Province.
Iran still is caring for thousands of
Iraqi Shiites who fled their homeland af
ter Saddam, a Sunni Muslim, put down a
Shiite uprising following the GulfWar.
Hidden weapons
The U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM), charged with mspetiftB
eliminating Iraq's weapons o( mass destruction, gave a IrighlngX
in October 1997 of the number of weapons still unaccounted led®
CHEMICAL AGENTS
Quantity
reported*
(in tons)
FINDINGS
Precursor chemicals
produced and procured
20,000+
4.000 tons notver^R
Chemical warfare agents
3,850
Cannot tie estate®
Chemical warfare agents
consumed from 1981 to 1988
2,870
Verification impoittK
Chemical warfare agents destroyed
under UNSCOM supervision
690
Quantities verifiec ■
Chemical warfare agents discarded
during production, or destroyed
during aerial bombardment in 1991
290
No supporting 1
documentation K
provided for 130 ■
’Provided by Iraq in 1996
MUNITIONS
Quantity
reported*
FINDINGS |
Empty munitions
n *
91
destroyed unilaterally by Iraq
Filled and empty munitions destroyed
under UNSCOM supervision
Filled end empty munitions
destroyed by Iraq or destroyed
during aerisi bombardment In 1991
107,500 not verifitf |
Cannot bee
Verification in
15,620 not Vi
No supporting
documentation
provided for 16,01 ]
I KNOW WHAT I KNOW. WE COME & WE GO. ITS IN THE BACK OF MY EYES
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