Wednesc
State & Local
Page 2
The Battalion
Wednesday, March 11,1931
U.S. economy recovers, expert says
A&M professor plots growth rate
by referring to early 80s recession
By Julie Polston
The Battalion
An economics expert said
Tuesday the United States is in a
recovery - not a recession - fol
lowing President Bush's goal to
slow down the rate of economic
growth.
Dr. Jared Hazelton, head of the
Center for Business and Economic
Forecasting at A&M, explained
how the United States is in a re
covery period by referring to the
early 1980s.
"We started recovering from
the last recession in 1983, and the
economy then grew from 1983 un
til 1990," he said.
"But toward the end of the
'80s, it became apparent that that
growth rate couldn't be sus
tained."
Hazelton said President Bush's
objective was to make the reces
sion end with a whimper and not
a bang.
"The idea was to slow down
the rate of growth to a sustainable
level to try to keep out of the re
cession," Hazelton said.
The government needed to let
businesses and households pay off
some of their debts, and let the
economy get a breathing spell, he
said.
Hazelton said the plan to slow
the economy down was basically
left up to the Federal Reserve
Board. However, two events oc
curred in the summer of 1990 to
upset the government's plan, he
said.
First, the Gulf War last year led
to an increase in oil prices and
shook the overall confidence in
America. Second, the rising deficit
caused Bush to .go back on his
promise and raise taxes.
Hazelton said economists were
predicting a short, mild recession
as a result of these two events, de
spite the general public's fear of a
long, drawn out recession. By
April of 1991, signs of a recovery
began to emerge, he said.
Part of the reason the United
States still has slow economic
growth is because of the overall
pessimism in our country - as well
as the role of the media - Hazelton
said.
However, there are several
reasons why Americans should be
optimistic, he said. First, Ameri
can organizations and businesses
are becoming much more compet
itive.
" We hear a lot about the trade
deficit with Japan, but we ignore
the fact that we have a trade sur
plus with Western Europe, and
they are no slouchers in produc
tion," he said.
The expansion of retail growth
as seen in increased holiday sales
last Christmas is another reason
for optimism, he said. In addition,
Hazelton said the United States
has low inflation rates and low in
terest rates.
Finally, since this is an election
year, the Federal Reserve Board is
likely to "sit on their thumbs and
be invisible," he said.
"The Fed has done all it can
do, and it takes months for Fed ac
tion to take place," Hazelton said.
"So what you've really got is just
patience, and people are not very
patient. That's why I think politi
cians are going to pay a heavy
price this year."
Workers reinforce Rayburn Reservoir spillway
JASPER (AP) — Emergency workers on
Tuesday were placing sandbags and reinforc
ing concrete barriers with steel brackets to
shore up a potentially unstable spillway on the
Sam Rayburn Reservoir, which is at record
high levels because of heavy rains.
The 2,200-foot-wide spillway is next to the
reservoir dam and is designed to allow water
to flow over it before it reaches the top.
The water on Tuesday was at a record 175
feet above sea level, about a foot below the
spillway. That topped the 172.2 feet recorded
in 1974. '
Army Corps of Engineers officials worry
that more rain could send water levels over the
top of the spillway and erode the structure.
Heavy rains in recent weeks have swollen the
Angelina River watershed, which drains into
the reservoir. Tyler County has received about
18 inches of rain so far this year, more than
twice the normal amount.
The area forecast called for no additional
rain in the next few days.
A Corps of Engineers study in 1986 found
that sandy soil at the base of the spillway was
unstable and could erode in a flood. A $40 mil
lion project to renovate the spillway is slated
for 1994. The spillway and dam went into op
eration in 1965.
John Yearwood, emergency management
coordinator for Tyler County, said failure of
the spillway would endanger a wide area of
southeast Texas, including Beaumont.
The high water has left about 100 homes
flooded downstream from the dam, with water
up to 5 feet deep reported in some places. A
shelter was opened at a school in Spurger, but
most residents forced from their homes chose
to stay with friends or family.
Judge sentences ex-vice squad leader
AUSTIN (AP) — A former vice
squad head convicted of using ex
cessive force has been sentenced
to 16 months in prison, only about
a quarter of the term recommend
ed by prosecutors.
Byron "Bubba" Cates received
the sentence Monday, after prose
cutors had recommended a 70- to
87-month term. The former Austin
police sergeant was convicted in
November.
U.S. District Judge James
Nowlin sentenced Cates, 39, to 16
months in prison, two years' su
pervised probation and a $5,000
fine for using interstate commerce
to promote prostitution or to dis
tribute the proceeds of prostjtu- <
tion and use of £^cessiv^force as a
police officer.
Cates also was assessed a fed
erally required $50 fine for each of
the counts.
"I always thought Judge
Nowlin was a fair judge. I have no
complaints,'' Cates said after leav
ing the courtroom.
Cates,wgs free on ball bond
until federal officials determine
when and where he will report to
serve his sentence, said Nowlin.
"I'm, struck by the fact that
during the time (of the crimes),
you were abusing alcohol/' Nowl
in said before sentencing Cates.
Prosecutor Jim Blankinship,
who recommended the 70- to 87-
month sentence, declined com
ment after the sentencing.
Cates became head of the vice
squad in January 1990, after 13
years as a police officer.
Sociologist examines
black working women
By Karen Praslicka
The Battalion
Data has shown that health
impedes the progress of black
women in the workplace, and
the level of their education
might be an important factor, a
Texas A&M University sociolo
gist found.
Dr. Elizabeth Maret, an as
sociate professor in the sociolo
gy department, has found from
a twenty-year study completed
in 1986 that black women in the
work force have much poorer
health than white women.
Maret's data also indicates
that because these black women
have lower educations, their
health suffers, and therefore
their jobs suffer.
"It's my feeling the health of
black women should receive
more attention as an area of na
tional priority," she said.
"Health in general should be a
matter of national priority."
Maret said there is a general
relationship between education
in health: the less education a
erson has, the lower her
ealth.
Maret looked at data on the
health status of black women
over a 20 year period beginning
in 1967. Her research indicates
that not only were their past
and present health conditions
influenced by education, but
the occupation of the women's
mothers nad an influence.
"What I found to be impor
tant is that the mother's occupa
tion has a direct influence on
the number of years of school
completed by respondents (of
the study)," she said. "It has a
direct and indirect effect on
health. It's indirect through
their previous health status,
and a direct effect on their
health status now.
"It affects their health ori
gins as well as their health des
tinations," she said. "The moth
er's occupation was a variablel
found to be very important."
Maret has been invited by
the United States Departmentof
La txir to present her research at
a conference in 1993.
"Possibly at the conference
I'll be able to establish linkages
between race, health and labor
force attachment through time,'
she said.
In general, her findings indi
cate that when their mother had
a white or blue collar position,
respondents' health was gener
ally higher. Respondents whose
mothers had low-paid service
positions usually had a lower
health status.
Maret's present research
stems from work she completed
during the early 1980's aboul
women in the work force.
Her research was longitudi
nal, considering patterns over
time. It covered the number of
hours worked per week, the
amount of work per year, and
the number of years worked
since the women left school.
"This tells you how long
and to what extent you've par
ticipated in the work force,'
Maret said.
Maret said through this re
search she realized health is im
portant for looking at labor
force attachment of women,
and specifically to labor force
attachment of black women.
Maret said in a paper she
wrote in 1990, which is pending
publication, she took a more in-
depth look at the health of black |
women.
"That's where I found the I
importance of schooling and!
the importance of the mother's;
education," she said.
However, the implications
of all of Maret's research stillre-
main to be seen.
"I haven't taken all that gl
put it into one model," sA
said.
The Battalion
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