Friday, February 14, 1986AThe Battalion/Page 7
Myriad of challenges in Middle East
Panel speaker stresses
U.S. oil dependence
Dr. Odeh Aburdene, a specialist on Arab economic relations.
By JEANNE ISENBERG
Staff Writer
Even if world oil prices continue
to drop, the United States has no
choice but to increase its depen
dence on the Middle East, a special
ist on Arab economic relations said
Thursday at the Student Conference
on National Affairs.
Dr. Odeh Aburdene said, “World
wide energy reserves have not in
creased, but on the contrary, have
decreased.”
He said, “The only region that
continues to add reserves, the only
region that continues to export oil
and yet maintain and increase its re
serves is the Gulf region. And here
We’re talkig about Saudi Arabia, Ku
wait, Abu Dhabi and Qatar.
“So over the next five years, if the
rice of oil drops to about $10 per
arrel, many marginal oil producers
will be out of business, and the world
will have to depend on Middle East
oil.”
Aburdene, who is senior vice pres
ident and manager of the New York
branch of Arab Bank Ltd., said
when people speak of the Middle
East they think of only one commod
ity — oil. He said that is all the Gulf
region has except for sand, since it
doesn’t have a skilled labor force or
any other economic resource. With
out the oil, he said, it would be the
poorest region of the world.
But underneath all that sand,
Aburdene said, is over 60 percent of
the world’s oil reserves, and that is
what makes the Middle East so im
portant.
Between the oil reserves of the
United States, Canada and western
Europe, for example, exist about 59
billion barrels of oil — but just one
oil well alone in Saudi Arabia may
have more than 63 billion barrels, he
said.
“In this country, I’m told,” Abur
dene said, “if present consumption
continues to grow at the same rate
it’s been growing in the last five or
six years, the United States will be
out of oil in nine years.”
Prices of oil are dropping right
now, he said, because many oil-pro
ducing countries are suffering from
financial difficulties. The countries
are thus producing more oil and try
ing to compete with each other
through selling the oil at discounts.
In 1972, the Gulf region countries
were highly undeveloped and uns
tructured, Aburdene said, and over
90 percent of the funds acquired
from oil revenues were spent to
bring those countries from the 17th
century into the 20th century.
But the outlook for economic pro
gress in the region in the next four
or five years is gloomy, he said.
“If the oil prices do continue to
drop,” Aburdene said, “the whole
region will experience unemploy
ment. And the region will experi
ence political instability because in
the past 10 years these governments
have been able to spend a great deal
of money and have thus pacified the
local populations.
“And despite the fact that oil reve
nues were being accumulated by oil-
producing nations, these nations
spent the bulk of the revenues on
imported goods and services from
the West.”
The Middle East depends on
western nations for its imports be
cause it is not a diversified area,
Aburdene said.
To industrialize or to become an
agricultural power or move into
areas other than oil for revenues, he
said, a country needs to have man
power, skilled laborers and numer
ous resources. Most of the Middle
Eastern countries do not have any of
those, he said.
Countries can import technology,
but not factories, plants and enough
skilled technicians, he said, so they
have no choice but to remain oil-pro
ducers unless they combine reve
nues to industrialize somewhere.
And if the Middle East does expe
rience bad times, he said, so will the
United States. For the last 10 years,
the United States has been exporting
over $15 billion per year to the Mid
dle East. If that slows down, fewer
exports will mean fewer jobs in the
United States, he said.
“It has been estimated that for ev
ery $1- billion worth of exports,
40,000 jobs are created,” Aburdene
said. “ The Middle East has been cre
ating jobs for the U.S.A. Close to
half a million jobs were created from
it.”
So the relationship the United
States has enjoyed with the Middle
East has been a profitable and attrac
tive one, Aburdene said. While
many companies and banks from the
states are pulling out of the Middle
East because of its slow economy, he
said, that is a short-sighted policy.
“Whether we like Arabs or not,”
Aburdene said, “we"have a problem
in that the energy crisis has not been
resolved.
“It’s only a matter of time before
we become more dependent on the
Gulf, and unless we take the proper
measures, unless we prepare our
selves to take advantage of future
opportunities, we will find that the
Japanese, and the French, and the
Germans and the Italians will take
our market share.
“And when the oil prices do go up
again, those companies and banks
who pulled out will pay the penalty.
And they will find it very difficult to
come back.”
Panel explores fundamentalist Islamic revival in Mideast
By MONA L. PALMER
Staff Writer
The United States should regard
the Middle East’s return to the fun
damentals of Islam with sympathy
and understanding, realizing the
differences between the two cul
tures, a University of Texas profes
sor said Thursday at the Student
Conference on National Affairs.
Dr. John Williams was joined by
Dr. Elizabeth Fernea, also a UT pro
fessor, and Dr. Andrew Hess from
the Fletcher School of Law and Di
plomacy at Tufts University for a
panel discussion of modernization
and Islamic revival in the Middle
East.
Williams, concentrating on the
cultural and religious aspects of the
Middle East, said the Judeo-Chris-
tian tradition is unfair to Muslims
because Islamic tradition is a part of
the Western religions and one reli
gion could not have developed with
out the others.
But the Muslims believe the Ju-
deo-Christians have strayed and are
returning to fundamentalist Islam in
reaction to their wrong turn, Wil
liams said.
The Middle East is returning to
fundamentalist Islam to regain con
trol of their society which has been
exploited by European nations, he
said.
“The drowsy giant is waking up —
the train is on the tracks,” Williams
said.
But the United States continues to
throw itself on the tracks by creating
difficult situations, he said.
“These are not our enemies and
they would like to be our friends.”
he said.
When three centuries worth of
technology are applied in one in
stant the effect is devastating, he
said, because the people don’t start
off at stage one and evolve, they start
with advanced machinery.
Hess also said rapid moderniza
tion has hurt the old cities and small
merchants in the Middle East.
Planning a modern city by an old
one destroys an old city, he said. The
new cities have rectangular street
patterns, wide boulevards and great
apartment houses that don’t coin
cide with the old city patterns.
And the little, narrow family-run
shops are almost out of business,
Hess said. In Saudia Arabia a large
Safeway stands next to the old loca
tion of small merchant shops.
Fernea asked students in her
classes at UT and at the University
of Beruit for their opinions about
the other country.
The Beruit students thought of
Dallas, materialism, no religion, no
family life, child abuse, elderly abuse
and cowboys.
Her UT students thought of fa
natics, terrorism, violence, camels,
secularism and oil.
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