opinion
January if
li
Slouch
By Jim Earle
“Although I can appreciate your fondness for taxidermy,
don’t you feel that we might give it a lower priority?”
Economy down;
stock market up
by Art Buchwald
It seems every time there is bad econo-
y-mic news on evening television, the stock
.‘-market goes up another 10 points.
; - The only thing I’ve been able to figure
; lout is that either Wall Streeters don’t
Iwatch television, or they’re living in a
Iworld of their own.
I have a cousin who works for one of
;the large brokerage firms and I called
Tim the other day to find out what was
going on.
I “I can’t talk to you now,” he said. “The
*new unemployment figures came out
-and I have to start buying stock.”
- “Why? Is unemployment going
•down?”
~ “No, but it only went up slightly com-
Ipared to last month, so the bulls have
Igone into action again.”
T “Why are the bulls acting so bullish
Zwhen all the indicators are bearish?”
; “Because the bulls are betting the Fed
^is going to loosen up on tight money, and
^interest rates are going to come down.”
; “The feeling here in Washington is,
even if the Fed lowers the interest rates,
the $200 billion deficit will suck up any
available investment money.”
■ “The bulls aren’t watching
Washington.”
• “What are they watching?” I asked.
“They’re watching each other. When
one of the big bulls starts buying, the
others have to follow suit, or they’ll be left
-back in the stampede. The work out on
the street now is if you see a red flag, bid
on it.”
“Don’t the bulls read the papers?
^They’re closing manufacturing plants all
over the country.”
“That’s why Wall Street feels it’s the
time to buy. If the plants stayed open,
stocks would not be a bargain.”
“But if the plants are closed, earnings
will be down and there will be no di
vidends for the stockholders.”
“The bulls are not looking for di
vidends. They’re looking to make a prof it
on their stocks. The big boys can get in
and out in a few days and make millions
on their investments.”
“It sounds like a crap game to me.”
“It is a crap game. But as long as there
are enough guys rolling dice, nobody is
going to close down the table.”
“I thought Wall Street was supposed to
reflect the economy of the country.”
“It used to. But now it’s a game all unto
itself . We’re on a roll now, and as long as
everyone is making money, we’re going
to keep betting no matter what the rest of
the country is doing. The only ones who
have lost their shirts in the last year are
the bears because they believed what they
read in the newspapers.”
“Does this mean the bulls on Wall
Street don’t care if the recession is on or
over?”
“It’s not their business. As long as they
can buy low and sell high, they look like
geniuses.”
“But surely they must have some faith
the economy is going to turn around or
they wouldn’t be investing their money in
all the companies listed on the stock
market.”
“Of course they have faith in the eco
nomy. But they don’t have time to wait
for it to turn around. When you’re sitting
on $500 million of somebody else’s
money, you want results now.”
“So the market is going up because the
money managers have no choice but to
buy stocks in the bull market which they
made themselves, so everyone would
look good?”
“It isn’t that simple. When things were
good most company stocks were over
priced. Now that things are lousy, most of
them are underpriced. So everyone
wants to get in on the fire sale.”
“Well I guess if Wall Street isn’t wor
ried, I shouldn’t be. After all, you guys
seem to know what you’re doing. If we
paid attention to everything that was
going on in the country we’d all bejump-
ing out of windows.”
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77843.
Winning 1984 nomination
by Maxwell Glen
and Cody Shearer
On Halloween 1982, a former aide to
California Senator Alan Cranston
spooked a party of liberal political activ
ists by masquerading as his former boss.
With the help of a bald man’s mask, he
circulated among the amused crowd,
trumpeting his presidential candidacy
and pretending to buttonhole represen
tatives of political action committees. To
Los Angeles partygoers, the Cranston act
was never taken seriously.
John Glenn of Ohio and Gary Hart of
Colorado — need raise only $5,000
apiece in each of 20 states to join Mon
dale.
portedly on behalf of fellow!
His “Democratic Leadership (I
established to aid senatorial(
raised $2.9 million.
But what seemed a big joke last fall is
no longer a laughing matter. The lean
senator, little-known to voters outside
this state, captured the First straw poll at
last weekend’s California Democratic
convention.
For Democrats, the likely prospect of a
December endorsement by the AFL-CIO
has also stepped up the campaign sche
dule. Should federation president Lane
Kirkland call a vote, a simple majority of
union executives will be able to deter
mine the recipient of big labor’s delegate
lobbying and get-out-the-vote opera
tions. Kirkland wants clout in 1984 and
unions will have undue influence on the
size and behavior of the Democratic Field.
While Mondale seems to haved
among representatives of
labor, Cranston has hired thep
tions firm of Vic Kamber, afon
CIO activist, to run his camp
three-term senator already
stantial union following in Cal
More importantly, Cranston’s early
success indicates how a few politicians
can turn the presidential nominating
contest into an exclusive affair before the
rest of the country tunes in.
Today, membership in the club of
presidential candidates goes to those
who, above all, are early birds at muster
ing political dollars. Even though federal
matching funds will be unavailable until
early next year, former Vice President
Walter Mondale has already submitted
his initial request to the Federal Election
Commission. Four other Democrats with
registered presidential campaign com
mittees — Cranston, former U.S. trade
representative Rubin Askew and Sens.
Meanwhile, candidates are under new
[pressure to get an early start at grass
roots organization. Presidential primar
ies will probably be fewer in 1984 than in
1980, with party caucuses choosing more
delegates to the national convention.
(The primary season will also be Five
weeks shorter; candidates w ill need sub
stantial state organizations in place in the
event that “the big momentum” comes
their way.) Elected officials, under new
Democratic Party rules, will also have
automatic delegate seats at the nominat
ing convention; those candidates who ha
ven’t helped to raise f unds for these dele
gates will find themselves out of favor.
Indeed, his California bash
ably mean favored access tos
sources of funds, organization!
gates. California is expected toJ
percent of the delegates to
cratic convention, a fact which,j
loses, could give Cranston enoni
fluence over party decisions.
But such power would, union
say more about Cranston’s undf
ing of modern campaign fin
organization than about thef
national popularity. In fact.futic
idential candidates may requi
more than sophisdcation in
techniques to compete. Whattlit|
for will mean less and less.
Alan Cranston is one candidate who’s
mastered the intricacies of this process to
his advantage. In addition to numerous
forays into Iowa and New Hampshire, he
visited at least 35 states last year, pur-
For now, as Sen. Dale Bum
Arkansas admitted last weeVeniLi
maries are a year off but “thel
have already stepped on rheliecl
comers won't be welcome.
While hardcore DemocratsirJ
joy the new game, it seems rail
democratic for the rest of us. I
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Will Ronald Reagan run again?
and (
by Clay F. Richards
United Press International
WASHINGTON — The favorite
guessing game in town these day is
whether President Reagan is going to run
for re-election.
Most of the jockeying is not from in
side the Reagan camp, but from just ab
out everyone else — Republican and
Democrat — who believes they would be
nefit if the president does not seek a
second term.
Those closest to the game find signs
every week that Reagan is or is not run
ning.
already ousted by conservatives as head
of the Senate Republican Campaign
Committee, has spent several days this
month in New Hampshire, but says it
does not mean he is running.
The interest in the Democratic Party is
heating up, with more candidatesjoining
the list every day. They, too, realize that
running against a nonincumbent always
seems easier than running against an in
cumbent president.
But before joining the “Anyt*
Reagan for President Committetl
yourself a sinqjle multiple-choicel
tion:
“A few weeks ago it looked like they
(the White House) were doing the kinds
of things they would be doing if they
were running,” said one high Republican
official. But he couldn’t identify any one
tangible “thing” that most political obser
vers would say confirmed his vision.
The truth of the matter probably is
that unless Reagan made some long-ago
pact with his wife, Nancy, to be a one-
term president, Reagan probably hasn’t
made up his mind whether to run for
re-election.
As governor of California, ^eT ! n
Reagan 1) Proposed record
creases? 2) Approved welfare “reflate c
that qualified record numbers Msk to
nefits? 3) Signed what was theiulit*. “W
liberal abortion law in the nation® 131-
The answer is all of the above
simpsc
•hat tj
“Now,” he added confidently, “I don’t
see them doing those things.”
From the far right, the conservative
troops led by Richard Viguerie, the pub
lisher of “Conservative Digest,” sug
gested last week that the New Right chart
its own course as it moves toward the
1984 election and not stay hitched to
Reagan.
At midterm, he sees his administra
tion battered, the economy at a low ebb,
and the conservative principles he has
championed throughout his political
career suddenly unpopular.
One has to believe there comes a point
w’here Reagan might ask: “Why should I
run again if I have no further chance of
accomplishing that which I believe in so
strongly?”
Berry's
Senate Republican leader Howard
Baker says he is not going to seek re-
election in 1984. That would put him in a
position to get ready for a run at the
White House in 1988, but would also
mean he is free for 1984 if Reagan drops
out.
Sen. Robert Packwood of Oregon,
These days it is not House Speaker
Thomas O’Neill who tells Reagan he
must change the course, but the conser
vative Sen. Robert Dole of Kansas, the
Senate Budget Committee chairman,
and the president’s own chief of staff,
James Baker. On any given issue, Reagan
will find himself at odds with nearly every
member of his own Cabinet.
So at midterm there is much to fuel
the fire of speculation that Reagan will be
a voluntary one-term president.
T
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