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Viewpoint
The Battalion
Texas A&M University
Monday
January 19, 1980
Slouch
By Jim Earle
“/ can t understand it! I’ve been kicked in the pants four times by
perfect strangers!”
Electoral decimation
jfDems premature
By DAVID S. BRODER
WASHINGTON — Politics is power. Poli
os is people. Politics is also numbers. Votes
e counted in an election, people win or lose
id power shifts. In all of politics, no set of
imbers is more sweeping in its import than
Lose the Census Bureau reports every 10
J :ars.
They provide the basis for the reapportion-
ent of seats in the House of Representatives
id votes in the Electoral College. Within each
ate; the population numbers are the raw
aterial from which crafty political architects
iild their intricate redistricting plans to in-
, ease their party’s number of state legislature
id House seats and to create vulnerable dis-
icts for the opposition.
So it was hardly surprising that headlines
eeted the news that the 1980 census figures
- certified on New Year’s Eve despite con-
nuing court challenges to their accuracy —
andated a 17-seat shift, largely from the
ortheast and Great Lakes states to the South
id the West. Eleven states gained seats, 10
st — in some cases drastically. New York
ses five House seats and electoral votes;
ennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois, two each,
lorida is up four; Texas, three; California,
vo.
That is a real power shift and a continuation
' a trend that has been gaining force for de-
ides. In just 20 years, Florida has eliminated
ilf the 29-vote edge New York had on it in the
ouse and the Electoral College. Similarly
■astic shifts have occurred within the borders
individual states, as old cities have declined,
iburbs spread and new population centers
nerged in rural areas. Tracing the impact of
icse population changes through the bloody
sdistricting battles ahead in the legislatures
ill be one of the most fascinating political stor-
s of the year.
But as that process begins, one word of
mtion is in order. Some commentaries suggest
lat the population trends reflected in the cen
ts report spell doom for urban programs, li-
3ralism, the Democratic Party or all of the
)ove.
That is almost certainly an overstatement, as
couple of simple experiments show. My col-
ague Christopher Colford and I recalculated
the recent presidential elections on the basis of
the new Electoral College strengths and were
surprised by the modesty of the resulting
changes.
There have been three very close presiden
tial elections in the last 20 years — those of
1960, 1968 and 1976. In popular vote terms, the
winning candidates’ margins over the runners-
up were respectively, 0.2 percent, 0.7 percent
and 2.1 percent. You can hardly imagine closer
races.
When Colford and I recalculated the Elec
toral College results of those three elections as
they would have been under under the post-
1980 census reapportionment, the surprise was
that there was no surprise: The same candidates
won by roughly the same margins.
In the “adjusted re-run” of 1960, John Ken
nedy beat Richard Nixon by 32 electoral votes
— not the actual 80. In the re-run of 1968,
Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey by 131 electoral
votes, not 111. And in the re-run of 1976, Jim
my Carter’s margin over Jerry Ford was 50
votes, not 56.
In other words, the shift of electoral votes
mandated by the last three censuses consistent
ly helps the Republicans — but not by enough
even to reverse the two extremely close Demo
cratic victories of the past two decades.
The other finding casts doubt on the theory
that a reapportioned House would necessarily
doom liberal programs. Colford and I looked
back to some of the closest votes of the Great
Society period to see how reapportionment
might have affected their outcome.
Whether it was food stamps in 1964, rent-
supplements or the creation of the Department
of Housing and Urban Development in 1965,
support was comparable in the states that have
gained seats to the states that are losing votes.
Obviously, it is impossible to “prove” what
would have happened to such programs — or to
more recent controversial liberal bills — in a
reapportioned House. The impact of the popu
lation shifts will be filtered through the district
ing battles only now beginning in legislatures
across the land.
But the most sweeping judgments about the
decimation of Democratic presidential pros
pects and of liberal programs are at least prema
ture and possibly precarious.
Warped
The hostages are harbingers
n c<
eed
Sng
king
ting
ifor
As we begin the new classes of the New Year,
it is appropriate to pause for a moment and
reflect on the names of several people to whom
we all owe a great debt. Their names:
Thomas Ahern, 48.
William Belk, 43.
Robert Blucker, 52.
Donald Cooke, 25.
William Daugherty
Robert Englemann, 33.
William Gallegos, 21.
Bruce German, 43.
Duane Gillette, 23.
Allan Golacinski, 29.
John Graves, 52.
Joseph Hall, 30.
Kevin Hermening, 20.
Donald Hohman, 38.
Leland Holland, 52.
Michael Howland
Charles Jones, 39.
Malcolm Kalp
Moorehead C. Kennedy Jr.
William Keough Jr., 49.
Steve Kirtley, 21.
Kathryn Koob, 41.
Frederick Lee Kupke, 32.
Bruce Laingen, 57.
Steve Lauterbach, 28.
Gary Lee, 37.
Paul Lewis, 22.
John W. Limbert
James M. Lopez, 21.
Johnny McKeel Jr., 26.
Michael Metrinko, 33.
Jerry Miele, 41.
Michael Moeller, 28.
Sidebars
jig <
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By Dillard Stone
Bert Moore, 44.
Richard M. Morefield, 50.
Capt. Paul M. Needham, 29.
Robert C. Ode, 64.
John O’Keefe
Richard Owen
Gregory A. Persinger, 22.
Jerry Plotkin, 45.
Regis Ragan, 38.
David Roeder, 40.
Barry Rosen, 36.
William B. Royer Jr., 48.
Thomas Scahefer, 52.
Charles Scott, 47.
Rodney V. Sickman, 22.
Joseph Subic Jr., 22.
Elizabeth Ann Swift, 39.
Victor Tomseth, 39.
Phillip R. Ward
iranj
ilant
I don’t know any of these people. You prob
ably don’t either. But to us — you and me and
millions of Americans as one great collective
entity — these names are those of a group of
American martyrs.
They’re not martyrs in the literal sense. But
they’re martyrs just the same, for each has
given 442 days of his life for — for what? What
have they done that was so heinous?
Nothing more than a simple fate which be
falls us all at one time or another — they werein
the wrong place at the right time.
The numbers beside the names have all
grown by at least one. The investment thal
represents is incalculable; it cannot be express
ed in monetary terms, in time, in editorial in
dignation, not even in national outrage. No-1
thing we can do can make up to these Amer
icans what they have lost for the crime of mere
ly being an American.
As I write this, Algerian sources are saying
the hostages’ release is only a “matter of hours’
away. I can only pray that this is true.
That’s exactly the root of frustration I and
countless others feel: All we can do is wait and
pray. Nothing we do can make any difference.
Such a feeling of national impotence hasn’t
been matched in my lifetime, and I would be
hard-pressed to find one in history. Such emas
culation of national pride, the humiliation ofit
all, should be satisfaction enough for the Ira
nians. The abstract costs to the hostages them
selves are incalculable, and the material costs to
the United States won’t be known until negotia
tions are concluded.
The entire episode is a horrible harbinger of
what may be the future of international diplo- ®
iarve
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Vida
lecla
:itni!
1
i)’ t<
ueci
ndS
mior
W<
bink
macy : In many countries, foreigners cannot and
will not be protected by the host government.
The protector instead becomes the tormentor.
In a country where a nation’s terror against
its own citizens, and those of foreign countries,
is tolerated, is anyone safe?
In a world where governments are the spon
sors of the terror, can total chaos be far behind?
HTie
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Guidelines for letters to the editor
By DILLARD STONE
Battalion Editor
The open expression of vibrant opinions is
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The Battalion welcomes the written opinions
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Whether as a letter to the editor for the “It’s
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Therefore, individuals should assume responsi
bility for the expression of their opinions.
— We try to print all of the letters we re-
Response on certain topics may, howev-
II
er, dictate that many letters remain unpub
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In no way will we try to stop the expression ol
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you’ll be making it easier for us to serve ass
voice for your thoughts.
The Battalion
T S P S 045 360
By Scott McCuitar
MEMBER
Texas Press Association
Southwest Journalism Congres
Questions or comments concerning any editorial matter
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