I'J
....
Viewpoint
The Battalion
Texas A&M University
Thursday
August 3, 1978
Lots of turkeys out there’
By DAVID S. BRODER
DETROIT — When the numbers go up
on election night next Nov. 7, most Re
publican pros will search for signs of the
revival of their party in the state house
returns, not in the contest for Congress.
Despite the big publicity effort being
planned to turn the tax-cut issue into a
battleery for more Republican seats in the
House, the private estimates of many of
the top GOP officials who gathered here
for their final pre-election meeting are
bleak when it comes to Congress.
There are a variety of reasons for that
feeling. But the main one was expressed
most bluntly by an official of one of the
major conservative political action groups
backing GOP challengers.
“There are,” he said, referring to the
Republican candidate list, “an awful lot of
turkeys out there.
While hopes are still being voiced for
significant gains in governorships, other
state offices and the legislatures, the Re
publican prospects for a breakthrough in
the House are modest indeed. In the Se
nate, the lineup of races this year is such
that Republicans will do well to achieve a
standoff.
A major reason for the modest House
prospects is the difficulty Republicans
have had in lining up top-flight challengers
in the districts now held by Democrats.
“It is a problem, said national chairman
Bill Brock. “People really wonder if you
can make a big enough impact to justify
the sacrifice. ”
As an example of what Brock means,
take Indiana. In the Watergate election
year of 1974, the GOP lost five of its seven
House seats to the Democrats. In 1976, it
failed to regain any of those districts, but
Mwetr*"
did knock off another, older Democratic
incumbent.
This year, prospects for the state ticket
look bright to state GOP chairman Bruce
Melchert, but he is far from sanguine
about House gains. The main reason is the
difficulty of getting top-flight candidates.
“I’m very honest with them,” Melchert
said. “I tell them that, given the advan
tages of staff, publicity, office space and
travel these incumbents enjoy, you just
can’t figure to take the average incumbent
out the first time you try. You’ve got to run
the first time to establish your base in the
district, and then you may beat him the
next time.
“The trouble is, that means taking three
years out of your life for virtually nonstop
Economic clouds
By JOHN F. SIMS
UPI Business Writer
LONDON — If all the political prom
ises turn into action, the outcome of the
economic summit conference in Bonn is
mostly good news for U.S. business. But it
may take a year for the full benefits to be
seen.
Some clouds still remain on the horizon
— like the unsettled multi-national trade
talks in Geneva and the European Com
mon Market’s proposals for monetary re
form — and there is sorr^h^JJ^rg^ining
ahead. J N-' ? * >
The seven leaders wlio gathered in
Bonn for the fourth of their annual summit
conferences on the global economy per
formed no miracles — as Japanese Prime
Minister Takeo Fukuda pointed out.
THEY WERE CAREFUL, President
Carter said at the end of the conference, to
promise only that which they knew they
could deliver.
What was promised was a $4 billion
stimulus to Japanese imports, much of
which could come from the United States,
and a $6.3 billion expansion of Germany’s
economy.
With the U.S. dollar in its still-
depressed state, the West German and
Japanese plans to stimulate their domestic
Economy
economies could mean improved pos
sibilities for U.S. exports.
Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, who
hosted the summit, warned that a lot
would depend on persuading legislators to
go along with the plans drawn up at the
conference.
President Carter obviously has the har
dest row to hoe in getting Congress to pass
energy legislation that he says will cut
U.S. oil imports by 2.5 million barrels a
day by 1985.
And the way he proposes to achieve
that, through allowing the price of Ameri
can oil to rise to the world price, involves a
political price. His congressional oppo
nents, in Carter’s thinking, should accept
that votes lost through raising gas costs are
price enough to pay for his energy pack
age.
SCHMIDT IMMEDIATELY RAN into
problems within his own government —
although the dispute was over where to
place the $6.3 billion.
H einz Stadlmann, writing in the
Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung, said: “The
Federal Republic of Germany will be the
first country that must cash the check it
signed in Bonn.”
For the average German the summit’s
accords could mean a reduction in taxation
by the end of the year and perhaps a sub
sequent reduction in the nation’s 900,000
unemployed.
Schmidt promised to stimulate eco
nomic growth by up to an extra one per
cent of gross national product annually,
which is about $6.3 billion.
Schmidt had already instructed both the
finance and economics ministries to draw
up proposals for 1) reform of income taxes,
2) reduction of corporate taxation and 3)
state investment in the fields of research
and technical development and ,
environmental protection.
A rift between Schmidt and his eco
nomics minister, Otto von Lambsdorff,
developed over how the money should be
disbursed. Lambsdorff would like to see
the entire amount put into tax cuts aimed
at stimulating private demand.
His hope is that Germans would spend
all the extra money they get and thereby
accelerate production in a number of con
sumer industries now operating at only 80
percent of capacity. —
WEST GERMANY’S PLANS also will
help France, its biggest trading partner.
More inflation in France will come out
of President Giscard d’Estaing’s pledge to
double the French budget deficit from $2
campaigning, and a lot of them look at
Washington, D.C., and say, 'It’s not worth
it. ’”
The problem is compounded by the new
demands placed on candidates for federal
office for full flnanacial disclosure and the
avoidance of anything that may be con
strued as a conflict of interest.
“A congressman’s salary is pretty good,”
says Jerry Rowe, the executive director of
the Michigan Republican party, “but it’s
not big money to a lot of the people you
really want to run. And these guys tell me.
Hell, no, I’m not going to open up every
page of my life to the newspapers and cut
myself off from my profession in order to
run.”’
Because of such feelings. Republicans
billion to $4 billion in the coming year.
The money probably will go into high
ways and other public works.
Britain and Italy, suffering the worst
economic situations of the seven partici
pants, pretty much sat on the sidelines in
Bonn. The expansionary policies promised
by the other nations are aimed at helping
them as much as anybody else.
Britain, especially, needs all kinds of
help to cut its total unemployment of 1.5
million.
Carter’s pledge to boost U.S. oil prices
to world levels — if Congress can Be per
suaded that German and Japanese expan
sion is sufficient trade-off — could cost the
American consumer 7 cents or more extra
on a gallon of gasoline.
The Petroleum Industry Research
Foundation Inc. (PIRFI), an independent
study group, estimated lifting U.S. oil
prices to world levels today would add 7
cents to the cost of a gallon of gasoline.
BUT ALAN GREENSPAN, former
head of the Council of Economic Advisers
under President Ford and now president
of Townsend-Greenspan, said: “The sum
mit will have no impact on the American
consumer.
“The purpose of these summits is
merely to have a forum in which heads of
government can converse with each other
on economic issues,” he said.
Under Carter’s plan to raise U.S. oil
prices to the world level, the hope is that
as Americans pay more they will use less
energy. Gasoline prices would be affected
more than home heating oil because more
gasoline is produced from domestic crude
now below the world price level.
Since the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries is expected to hike oil
prices in 1979, gas prices in 1980 and be
yond are likely to rise even more, depend
ing on such factors as inflation.
More fuel-efficient cars mandated by
Congress will partially offset the higher
cost of a fillup. Better mileage coupled
with higher gasoline prices should pro
duce a peak in gas consumption in 1980
and then a decline in gas usage through
1990, according to PIRFI.
But some U.S. petroleum experts think
Carter’s goal to lessen U.S. dependence
on foreign oil is unrealistic and predict the
United States will become a heavier im
porter by 1985.
PIRFI, in a recent study, forecast U.S.
oil imports will range between 9.4 million
and 12 million barrels a day in 1985, up
from 8 million barrels daily in the first
quarter of 1978.
Exxon USA, in its 1978-1990 energy
outlook released in April, projected U.S.
oil imports will rise to a peak 12.2 million
barrels daily by 1983 and then taper off.
Nevertheless, Exxon expects U.S. imports
to total 11.4 million barrels a day in 1990.
Carter will be looking to heavier use of
coal and nuclear energy to prevent that
from happening.
THE SEVEN LEADERS at the summit
committed themselves to encouraging
public and private investment and re
search in nuclear power.
But this is another area in which the
governments, especially the American
government, faces opposition beyond its
immediate control.
The strategy employed by the seven
summiteers is reminiscent of one Ameri
can general’s recommendation for ending
the war in Vietnam: “Declare a victory and
leave. ”
The seven heads of government said no
thing they have not been saying publicly
for weeks or even months. But still they
declared the summit a great success that
had exceeded all expectations.
It is hoped that their pledges will add up
to more than the sum of their parts, that
the summit fostered a feeling of inter
dependence.
That spirit of cooperation probably will
be sorely tested over the coming months.
The understatement
By JOHN REICHERTZ
United Press International
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — Presi
dent Carter, speaking to Latin American
diplomats in June, made what has to be
the understatement of the year.
“We realize that the path from au
thoritarian to democratic rule can be a dif
ficult and demanding one, ” Carter told the
VIII plenary meeting of the Organization
of American States in Washington.
More than 17 million voters have slip
ped ballots into a assortment of antiquated
and modern urns in eight Latin American
nations since the New Year, and the cry
that followed in many cases was “Fraud!!!”
In July Bolivia held its first elections
since the then Col. Hugo Banzer seized
power in a 1971 military coup.
The elections were to allow landlocked
Bolivia to observe the 100th anniversary of
its loss of a passageway to the sea to Chile
in the War of the Pacific with the respec
tability that being a democracy brings in
the Western hemisphere.
ON MAY 16, Dominican Republic’s
three-term president, Joaquin Balaguer,
sought a fourth term. By early the follow
ing morning it was becoming clear that
Antonio Guzman, a 67-year-old qattle
rancher and head of the Dominican Revo
lutionary party, was winning.
At that time, the national police
stomped into the national electoral board’s
office and stopped the vote count.
Carter and several Latin American
leaders immediately protested and urged
BUT THERE NEVER was much doubt
that Air Force Gen. Juan Pereda, Banzer’s
hand-picked candidate, would win the
elections — one way or another.
Three-time president Victor Paz Es-
tenssoro said weeks before the elections
he was sure he would win “if there wasn’t a
fraud the size of the one being organized.
Ten days after the July 9 balloting,
Pereda had a solid lead in the slow vote
counting.
Analysis
vote counting be resumed. Carter let it be
known that U.S. support for the Domini
can Republic depended on “the integrity
of the electoral process.”
Balaguer met with his generals for 36
hours and then ordered a resumption of
the count that eventually led to his defeat.
But all opposition parties and some
international observers — including an
OAS observer invited by the government
— contended that government and mili
tary officials had perpetrated gross fraud
on Pereda’s behalf. The U.S. state de
partment expressed concern and
encouraged action by the Bolivian elec
toral court.
The court promptly annulled the vote
and called for new elections in 180 days.
Pereda, who had also encouraged the
annullment to the displeasure of Banzer,
two days later led a bloodless armed rebel
lion and seized power.
Peru’s June 18 election of a constituent
assembly, intended to guide the country
to democracy by 1980, was the first in the
country in the last 12 years, and it came in
the middle of a crisis.
Carter, explaining why he spoke out
about the Dominican Republic, said four
nations with military governments were
scheduled to have elections later in the
year and he did not want the precedent of
fraud to be set.
IN PARAGUAY AND GUATEMALA
elections had already been staged, but
most observers, including the state de
partment, did not bother to raise a big
fuss. While there was no fraud, there did
not seem to be much choice either.
There was never much doubt that
strongman Gen. Alfredo Stroessner would
win his sixth term as president in
Paraguay.
And in Guatemala, where military gov
ernments have come and gone for 157
years, it did not seem to matter which of
the three army candidates won the March
elections.
But the hopes for change were greater
in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador, where mili
tary regimes have been firmly entrenched
for years, without the pretense of staged
electons.
IN MAY SEVERE rioting broke out as
the deficit-ridden government imposed an
economic austerity program calling for in
creases in the price of foods and transport.
After a two-day general strike and scores
of deaths in rioting, the military govern
ment suspended constitutional guaran
tees, deported eight leftist candidates and
stopped all political advertising on televi
sion and radio.
The measures brought a virtual halt to
the campaign for almost two weeks but
most were lifted 10 days before the elec
tions, which went off smoothly bringing a
sharp but no controlling increase in leftist
power in Peru.
A month later Ecuador, Peru’s oil-rich
neighbor to the north, went to the polls to
elect a president after eight years of mili
tary government and its electorate be
haved as if the voting was the most natural
of activities.
The election, however, did not produce
a victor as no candidate won the absolute
majority vote required for the presidency.
As a result, the two leading candidates will
go at it again later in the year.
often have had to settle for what they
could get in congressional candidates. In
one Michigan district that switched to the
Democrats only in 1974, the Republicans
this year have been forced to accept as
their nominee a Conservative Party official
whose ideological intensity is probably
greater than his policital prospects. The
problem is not confined to the GOP. In
Michigan’s 2nd District, which Rep. Carl
D. Pursell (R) won by only 344 votes in his
first race in 1976, an intensive Democratic
recruitment drive produced only one po
tential challenger.
That candidate filed an insufficient
number of signatures on his nominating
petition. So Pursell, who barely won last
time, finds himself running unopposed in
1978.
But because there are twice as many
Democratic incumbents in the House as
Republicans, the problems in recruiting
new candidates affect the GOP far more
severely.
The built-in limits on GOP prospects for
the House make it all the more vital for the
future of that party, that Republicans win
the victories they believe are possible in
the legislatures across the country and in
the few key governorships where their
chances now look good.
Holding the governorships they now
have in Michigan, Ohio and Illinois and
ousting the Democrats from control in
New York, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas,
and California are at the top of the GOP
priority list.
Without gubernatorial victories in at
least five of those eight states, it may be
another bleak election night for the Grand
Old Party.
(c) 1978, The Washington Post Company
Top of the News
State
Ma Bell to offer lifeline rates
The Public Utility Commission in Austin Wednesday refused to
allow Southwestern Bell Telephone Co. to raise basic residential and
commercial charges, and ordered the company to offer so-called
lifeline rates to residents of 15 cities on a trial basis. The commission,
however, did authorize the telephone company to increase rates
statewide by $124.5 million for installation and service-related calls.
Nation
Ratification block denied
A federal judge Wednesday in Washington denied a move by a
disgruntled Pittsburgh local to block the nationwide contract ratifica
tion vote this month by the 300,000-member American Postal Work
ers Union. The Pittsburgh Metropolitan Area Postal Workers Union
went to court in an attempt to halt the nationwide balloting by mail,
arguing that the union’s 49-member advisory committee must ap
prove a contract proposal before it can be submitted to the member
ship.
Arms shipments delayed
The House voted Wednesday in Washington to delay U.S. arms
shipments destined for Chile until the right-wing Santiago regime
agrees to extradite three suspects wanted in the Washington murder
of Chile’s former ambassador to the United State's The State De
partment said it expected Chile to honor a longstanding extradition
accord with the United States. The military junta already has arrested
three suspects sought by U.S. officials.
Times gets temporary reprieve
The New York Times and one of its reporters threatened with
imprisonment for withholding investigative files of a New Jersey
murder case won a temporary reprieve in Washington Wednesday
from Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall. Marshall said re
porter Myron Farber may stay free until noon Friday and postponed
a $5,000-a-day fine against the newspaper. The prison sentence and
fine were to take effect at noon EDT.
Firemen killed in fall
Six firemen plunged to their deaths Wednesday in a four-alarm fire
at a Brooklyn supermarket that collapsed in a burning heap of rubble,
officials reported. The death toll was the largest for New York City
firemen in 12 years. Sixteen other firemen were reported injured.
Officials said the trapped firemen were on the roof of the super
market when it collapsed unexpectedly, dumping them into the
flames below. The store had been under renovation, and officials said
the roof may have been weakened by the work.
Wheat sale set
Bangladesh was authorized in Washington Wednesday to purchase
$26 million worth of U.S. wheat under a new Food for Peace pm
gram, the Agriculture Department said. The authorization to bin
200,(XX) metric tons of wheat from Aug. 8 through Sept. 15 cameu
the same day Bangladesh and the United States signed an agreemfl
paving the way for the sales. Delivery of the wheat is to be
through Sept. 30. Bangladesh agreed to use the funds from sale of tl*
wheat within Bangladesh to pay for rural and agricultural develop-1 -
ment, population and family planning and health projects. Spend::.
the money within the country will be considered payment for the
food.
World
to
Chess match at draw again
World chess champion Anatoly Karpov and challenger Viktor Kor
chnoi agreed to their seventh consecutive draw in Baguio, Phillipines
Wednesday in a game that experts said Karpov had sewn up. Karpov
arrived five minutes late for the continuation of the adjourned match
and after Korchnoi’s first move — his 42nd in the game — the 27-
year-old Soviet whiz kid offered a draw. Korchnoi, whom experts had
said was in great danger of losing the match, quickly accepted.
Russia takes lead in space
The Soviet Union, capping a series of spectacular space firsts in the
past 10 months, Wednesday broke a cherished United States record
as the most experienced nation in space. As Soyuz 29 cosmonauts
Vladimir Kovalenok and Alexander Ivanchenkov circle Earth in the
Salyut 6 space lab, the Soviets broke the American record of a total of
937 man-days spent in space at midnight Tuesday.
Texan firefighters called
RAMI
ediicatio
network
n store
durin K A
Stasict
ptatimi
pres
Moliei
fels" M
Icated
Xh C
rtain ]
1 be al
mofa
Kami
Aug. i
her a
tapus 1
[The
organ;
1 aid i
ds, ra
is to f
rbert-
Iranian authorities summoned Texan Red Adair s firefighters Wed
nesday to try to control a huge fire threatening a vast new oilfield
discovered this week. Two Adair firefighters were expected to Ilyin
Wednesday night or early today to attempt what Iranian oil industry
sources described as “one of the most difficult fire control operations
on an oil well.” Oil well No. 101, 547 miles southwest of Tehran,
caught fire soon after engineers reached its vast oil and gas reservesat
a depth of about 15, ()()() feet Monday.
Weather
M
WWlllll
Continuing cloudy today and Friday without much change in
the temperature. High today in the mid-90s and low today
and tomorrow in the mid-70s. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Probability of precipitation 30% today, 20% tonight and 30%
daytime tomorrow.
The Battalion
Opinions expressed inThe Battalion are those of the editor on request. Address: The Battalion, Room 216-
or of the writer of the article and are not necessarily those of McDonald B uilding. College Station, 1 exas 7i8*
the University administration or the Board of Regents. The United Press International is entitled exclusive^'
Battalion is a non-profit, self-supporting enterprise oper- use f° r reproduction of all news dispatches credit
ated by students as a university and community newspaper. Rights of reproduction of all other matter herein
Editorial policy is determined by the editor. Second-Class postage paid at College Station,IN'
LETTERS POLICY
Letters to the editor should not exceed 300 words and are MEMBER
subject to being cut to that length or less if longer. The Texas Press Association
editorial staff reserves the right to edit such letters and does Southwest Journalism Congress
not guarantee to publish any letter. Each letter must be Editor Debbyfo
signed, show the address of the ivriter and list a telephone Sports Editor David^
number for verification. News Editor Lee Roy Lesd^
Address correspondence to Letters to the Editor, The City Editor Mark' 1
Battalion, Room 216, Reed McDonald Building, College Campus Editor Flavu
Station, Texas 77843. Photo Editor Pat Oil 1
Represented nationally by National Educational Adver- Copyeditor Sanili' 1
tising Services, Inc., New York City, Chicago and Los Reporter ScottPcnw
Angeles. Do ^
The Battalion is published Monday through Friday from
September through May except during exam and holiday
periods and the summer, when it is published on Tuesday Student Publications Board: Bob G. Rogers,Chi'
through Thursday. Joe Arredondo, Dr. Gary Halter, Dr. Charles McCt^
Mail subscriptions are $16.75 per semester; $33.25 per Dr. Clinton A. Phillips, Rebel Rice. Director off 1
school year; $35.00 per full year. Advertising rates furnished Publications: Donald C. Johnson.