,.v.v, ■..*rAV~vV. Page 4 THE BATTALION College Station, Texas Wednesday, February 10, 1971 Economy emerging from long recession A slowly emerging recovery from the longest recession busi ness has experienced since the depressed 1930s is underway, a leading national economist said here Tuesday. Dr. Martin Gainsbrugh said economists are unusually unani mous about the business direc tion trend and “they promise, almost without exception, a better 1971 than 1970.” Gainsbrugh, senior vice presi dent and chief economist of the National Industrial Conference Board, spoke to 31 participants in the 19th Executive Develop ment Course of the College of Business. He said economists indicated the recovery is well under way and that they believe the emerg ing expansion will gain momen tum throughout the year. “Where they differ is over the extent of the 1971 recovery and the threat of renewed inflation that may arise from reliance up on the full employment deficit to help speed the return to full employment,” Gainsbrugh com mented. He said opinions have particu larly differed since publication of the President’s economic report. Gainsbrugh injected his own thinking on the severity of the administration-induced recession, and the magnitude of the recov ery, based on figures of the Con ference Board, a non-profit scien tific research institution serving business economics and manage ment. “Fortunately, this recession, al though of extended duration, was largely confined to defense and defense related industries,” the EDP speaker stated. He said employment in services and non durables remained relatively un affected. Personal income and consumer spending was well maintained. A continued rise in state and local spending and business in vestment in plant and equipment, aided by elimination of surtaxes, held up better than in past down turns Gainsbrugh said. “In combination, these elements of strong demand helped trans form our longest business con traction in nearly a generation into one of our mildest reces sions,” he added. Gainsbrugh noted that mild re cessions are usually followed by mild rather than vigorous recov eries. Dimensions he attached to the upturn, conforming to the Con ference Board’s Economic Forum, follow: —Gross national product: Should move up about seven per cent to reach $1,065 billion by year-end. —Real economic growth: Infla tion still taking a high 1971 toll, but real growth rising from zero in 1970 to nearly three per cent by Dec. 31, 1971. first hours of work will be length ened, followed by increased ad. tions to payrolls. The offset will come from 1.5 million new jot seekers in 1971. —Prices: To the consumer, up nearly five per cent this year, particularly for services. As a consequence of wage rates rising faster than national productivity, unit labor costs are still advartc- ing, pushing consumer prices up. Gainsbrugh noted that NIC! data indicated the victim groups of unemployment increases in tin past year were nonwhite persons and young people between 16 anl 19 years of age. —Unemployment: Closer to 5.5 per cent by year-end than the 4.9 per cent anticipated in the Economic Report. As recession ends and real growth resumes, “As the past decade was tern, ed the ‘Soaring ’60s,’ I believt we are entering the ‘Sociallt Sensitive ’70’s’,” Gainsbrugh said It will involve changes in out capitalistic system, to include cor porations, toward solving social problems.” ( ma SUGAR UAHTl- wrm*^ fVf&WrZ, POU&IEGOIDBOID WITH *24 VAATH *2-50 OR AAoRCi RMRCHfcse TISSUE WWR! aost&c fwrru 4*1 STOKELY emu ttur 39* CATSUP X'&pfecn'je rste* Pim 11,12,12- • 14- PTL. Bonnie Baker—Brown & Serve AUS-TE* 15” Bonnie Ba] mms M roils 29< Jrr BANQUET — FROZEN wmt 71' DINNERS ‘Aff 88c PICNICS ppctvH a+eAvV BeeF: mcu gtzak # BoGmaumzrie 99c SAVOV "?&ezef2$peaAt-" \PUZS. aes. ioirs. 5opggl»srE SAcorsl lOfpyejzs. 50 fin IS- yyi HOC/® w vV- MONO CUOfT wok SS? •erilJPI-ess fA/vmV SLiceP0flO)Nl wmcuops 13 .49+ i3 65c m ICE CREAM RPLAR KING '/Z c5AL. tAFTON 59 "€VEJ2flPAyiOW PPligS' P\66W\N\6SM " mnosm ig, i3c 0ama srPAweePpv PPE5EI2VE9 tenM. 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